In my view, Senna is a lock for the STR seat unless he crashes and burns for the rest of the GP2 season. Don’t forget that if there is a new owner, the’ll love his sponsorship potential, even if he’s not the most talented driver available. Bourdais should kepe the other seat, but nothing’s for certain there.

As for Alonso, unless something changes, I think he’s just marking time until he can leave for wherever. I can see Honda ditching Rubens to pick him up- even if it’s only a one-year deal, it would be a HUGE boost in popularity for a team that is still searching to establish itself as a legit F1 contender.

The rest of the grid won’t change much for 2009- McLaren looks to be set for years, as dose Red Bull for at least a few. Some big questions could come up next season though, dealing with not only Alonso, but also Rosberg if Williams dosen’t show a big jump next season.

Kimi Raikkonen is still the fastest driver on the track on any given day (seven out of nine races with fastest lap). Careful examination of the season doesn’t indicate that he is no longer interested in winning. Therefore I believe he will be back with Ferrari in 2009 as will Massa who can run with anyone if everything is perfectly to his liking and he can start up front.

If Alonso stays with Renault in 2009, he may well be there for a long time to come. Renault has undeninably improved this year and with Alonso on board is set to continue the trend. Alonso would go to Ferrari only if Kimi leaves–which is a possibility for 2010, especially if he is able to win the championship in 2008 and/or 2009.

If Kimi stays on beyond 2009 then it would seem doubtful that Alonso would wait any longer to go to Ferrari however much he would like to drive for the Ialians. By 2010, or possibly even in 2009, BMW, Toyota, and (a 2010 long shot) Red Bull could be in the hunt.

Alonso would be a good fit at Toyota which is beginning to look very good and is miles ahead of Honda. Alonso would be the undeniable number one at Toyota. At BMW he would have to deal with Kubica, a rising star who is very quick, and at Red Bull with Vettel who is showing great promise.

BMW Sauber really does have the drivers they need at this time of their development and both drivers are doing well (sure I’m biased), but the car has leveled off a bit.

Alonso? Good question, but I say he stays on with Piquet at Renault at least in 2009.

My only other question mark is Barrichello. I like him with Honda and 2009 will be a new era for everyone.

I agree with Buemi to Toro Rosso.

Ferrari keeps Raikkonen and Massa.

The rest…..you got me!

There’s the old BAR Honda that is a persistent underachiever, but more and more there’s also a new Honda-owned, Brawn-directed Honda F1 team. This year’s car was built in record time after the plans for the original car were thrown away wholesale by the new aero people. Only then did Brawn come in and the first thing he did was to make sure that all efforts were concentrated on the 2009 season.

The car we see this year therefore isn’t really indicative of what the “new” Honda can do.

Next season will see the first “New Honda” car roll out.. which will no doubt be quite an improvement, but just how much?

Next year’s regulation changes will turn the whole sport upside down and nobody knows who will end up where.. it’s harder than ever for drivers to know what the best option is.

My bet is that it isn’t going to be Renault. I think Alonso is thinking along the same lines..

Nobody thought that Brawn would go to Honda. Now it might well be Alonso’s turn..

I really can’t see why so many people rate Jenson Button. I have watched him since before he was in F1. Like Lewis Hamilton he managed to get regular Autosport coverage from around the age of 10. In all that time I never saw him as anything special. I can’t understand why Honda pay him so much or paid to get him out of his Williams deal.

Mark Hughes at the half way point in the season did a statistical analysis on the performance of amongst other things team mates. The two team mates who came out as performing most equally were Button and Barrichello. Rosberg came out as the most dominant team mate. No-one rates Rubens as a great driver or worthy of a massive salary but despite supposedly being past his best is not being dominated to the extent Schumacher dominated him in his prime. Either Jenson is not as good as his reputation or Rubens is still improving.

@Stephen: I find it interesting that you have warmed to Alonso recently rather than previously. I loved Alonso during his first Renault stint. The two cars were good, but F2004s they weren’t. Yet he managed to rub Schumacher’s nose in it.* And if I block out all the political crap, he put in some stunning performances in the MP4-22, especially at the start of the season. I have to agree though, although Renault don’t appear to have moved much since last season, I think they have, especially in the last few races.

*Just looked at your avatar and worked it out.

Although I never really liked Alonso during the 1st Renault and McLaren era, I have now developed a great deal of respect for him over this season. He really does seem to be able to develop and steer a team in the right direction.

However, he obviously won’t be winning anything this year.

BMW would be well-advised to stick if possible (and it almost certainly is possible, now that McLaren and Ferrari have made their minds up, given Kubica’s a pretty intelligent driver).

If I were Flavio, I’d stick with Alonso for one final year (the big driver reshuffle looks to be for 2010, not 2009) and replace Piquet Jr. with di Grassi (to keep the sponsors happy with a view to him being possibly better at the job). Beyond that, it’ll be a question of opportunism as the driver situation at other teams slides into place – and Flavio’s history in that department has traditionally been good.

If Toyota are keeping Glock, then I think Williams will keep Nakajima, since he’s considerably better than the other Toyota development drivers. He’s come on in leaps and bounds, and if he isn’t quite a match for Rosberg yet, he is doing OK. Rosberg might be getting slightly frustrated, but I don’t see where he will go.

The Alonso-to-Honda rumour makes no sense to me. Don’t be surprised if the current duo stay on for lack of other options, but if there is a surprise move (from Fernando or anyone else), expect Honda to be effected by the resulting waves.

Although Toro Rosso seem to be thinking in terms of Buemi for next year, that’s purely from the way they’re talking now, and I have a horrible feeling that whichever of the two drivers in 2009 is slower will be fired mid-season to make way for Bruno Senna (who’ll most likely be asked to do a part-season in GP2 to round off his education first).

Returning to topic, Fisichella is on a two-year contract, so unless he does something exceptionally stupid, he will still be at Force India next year. I think Sutil has an option for next year. I don’t know which side has the power to exercise it, but I doubt Force India will be wandering too far from its present line-up just yet (Chandhok’s not really ready and Liuzzi isn’t as fast as either of the present race drivers at this stage).